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PRAXIS II, what are the odds?

So the praxis and the completion of the math block are the things keeping me from student teaching right now.  I just got done taking the praxis ii about 15 min ago and figured I would grab a delicious beverage and figure out what are the odds of me passing.

There are 50 questions on the the praxis ii, and you are given 2 hours to complete them.

I just picked my favorite letter (c of course)  on about 15% of them.  I figure that I will get about 1 in 4 of those right, there are only 4 possible answers after all.  So 50 * .15 * (1/4) = 1.875 points

This means that I answered 85% with some work involved.  Historically I am a B student, which means that I would get about 85% of the answers I worked through.  However, because this is a standardized test, I may need to skew these number a little.  The average score on the math portion of the ACT is 21/34 or about 62%, and we’ll call that a c.  So, lets make the new b somewhere in the middle, like (85+62)%/2 = 73.5%  This means that I collected 50 * .85 * .735 = 31.2375 points.

Well, as luck would have it, I still have a 1/4 chance of getting the points right that I may have done the math incorrectly for, so 50 * .85 * (1 – .735) * (1/4) = 2.8156

Lets add this up.  1.875 + 31.2375 + 2.8156 = 35.9281  so I may just get 36/50 or a 72%.  I think that’s passing.  Wish me luck everyone!

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